TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING

TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING:
Necessity of technology Forecasting.
Role of Technology Forecasting
Classification of Technology Forecasting approaches
Technology Forecast and Technology innovation Chain
Technological Forecasting Methods\

DEFINITIONS:
n Tech forecast deals with certain characteristics such as levels of technical performance, rate of technological advances.
n Tech forecasting also deals with useful machines, procedures or techniques.
Technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, products, processes, procedures or techniques.…
n Basic scientific findings/discovery of a principle
n Laboratory or bench level feasibility
n Operating prototype/pilot plant
n Commercial introduction or operational use
n Widespread adoption
n Diffusion to other areas
n Social and economic impact


Necessity of Tech Forecasting
n Scanning the technological environment
n Anticipating emerging technological changes,
n Identifying suitable technologies by evaluating alternatives,
n Planning for technologies for future needs.
There are four elements of a forecast which can be specified and estimated.
1) The time period
2) The nature of technology
3) The characteristics to be exhibited by the technology,
4) The probability associated with the characteristics
Role of tech forecasting
n It identifies limits beyond which it is note possible to go,
n It establishes feasible rates of progress,
n It describes the alternatives which are open and can be chosen from,
n It indicates possibilities which might be achieved, if desired,
n It provides a reference standard for the plan
n It furnishes warning signals, which can alert the decision maker.


Classification of tech forecasting approaches:
n Exploratory forecasting transcends into the future from the past performance or experience. Its techniques deal with analysis of technological capability, features of the past, evaluation of the present, looking forward to the future.
n Normative forecasting begins from the future and works out desired landmarks backwards to the present state. In other words, the mind is projected into the future by postulating a desired or possible state of technological development to satisfy a specific need.
FORECASTING METHODS
n BRAIN STORMING
n DELPHI TECHNIQUE
n TECHNOLOGY MONITORING
n GROWTH CURVES
n RELEVANCE TREES
n MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

BRAINSTORMING:
It is conducted by a group of people who attempt to forecast about a specific technology by collecting/contributing all the ideas spontaneously. It is to stimulate the generation of ideas on a given technology. Ideas are formed/offered spontaneously in a relatively unstructured environment
Steps involved in Brainstorming
n Step 1: Identification of a person as the group leader. He must have requisite experience of integrating or channeling the ideas to lead to solution.
n Step 2: Identification of the problem by a group so that multiple dimensions of the problem involved are clearly highlighted.
n Step 3: Definition and redefinition of the problem so that it is unambiguously understood by the group.
n Step 4: Idea generation process is initiated. Once a number of ideas are collected, a number of triggering questions are initiated to help combine ideas or approaches.
n Step 5: The recorded ideas are reviewed, classified and streamlined into related ideas and clusters.
n Step 6 : Rearranged ideas are evaluated possibly through a series of eliminating questions
Group to be effective, has to have a variety of people such as:
n Users of technology
n Experts, knowledgeable in technology
n Experts, knowledgeable about market
n Economists/financial analysts
n Dreamers with new ideas
n Persuaders who can help acceptance of an idea
n Technology forecasters
n Consultants
Applications of Brainstorming
n For obtaining new ideas of products/process/services/procedures
n For identifying new uses on market segments
n For overcoming bottlenecks
n For identifying alternative options or methods.
Advantages and Disadvantages:
n It is easy to organize and resources needed are modest.
n But it requires and experienced person to conduct it.
n Sufficient time is needed for organizing a brainstorming exercise.
n Further considerable preparation has to be made before the actual exercise begins.
DELPHI TECHNIQUE:
n When there is no historical data, especially situations in which new technologies are involved, expert opinion is the only possible source for a forecast,
n When impact of external factors is more important than the factors that governed the previous development of the technology
n When ethical considerations rather than technical and economic considerations govern the development of a technology.
Steps involved in Delphi technique:
n Step 1: Identify the specific area or field in which a Delphi exercise has to be carried out.
n Step 2: Identify a set of users, technology generators/experts, equipment manufactures, development bankers, and social scientists and others who can help in preparing a set of questions for forecasting technological developments in the given area.
n Step 3: A small core group is formed to prepare questionnaire with the help of persons at its feasibility, time frame and resources needed for commercial use and impact.
n Step 4: the questionnaire is then administered to a number of participants to cover a wide cross-section of interests.
n Step 5: The first round questionnaire is obtained and processed wherein minority views are also included.
n Step 6: The second round questionnaire, containing the processed responses of the first round questionnaire, is sent back to the participants to give their revised comments.
n Step 7: The second round results are then processed to get the consensus results.
Applications of Delphi technique:
n identify new factors likely to influence the future state of technological development
n Obtain probabilistic estimates of technological performance over a specified time horizon
n Obtain forecasts of a time scale for an event where other methods cannot be used.
n Obtain subjective quantitative measures of technological performance in the absence of objective data
n Advantages: obtaining forecasts when there is a limited amount of historical data and for fields which are highly interactive and interdisciplinary involving diverse parameters such as social, technical, economic, political and managerial.
n Disadvantages: It does not have any logic underlying each prediction and if repeated, it may not give reproducible results and although it may produce a high degree of convergence, but there is no high degree of reliability.
Technology Monitoring
n Step 1: Information Scanning
n Step 2: Screening the scanned information
n Step 3: Evaluation of the screened information and development of ideas.
n Step 4: Utilization of the evaluated ideas for R&D planning, project formulations, product diversifications etc.
Information Scanning
n Competitor’s R&D plans, approach/ideas, manufacturing programme, marketing thrust/share, financial health etc.
n Environment/health of the industry/sector
n Government’s policies, incentives/disincentives, regulation/control
n Manpower capabilities: educational/skills development, R&D etc.
n Social attitudes/preferences/prejudices
n Demand and supply estimates.
Screening of the scanned information
It is essential that the information of relevance be identified, according to short and long term objectives of the organization, for detailed scrutiny and evaluation
Evaluation of the screened information and development of ideas
n The forecaster would be in a position, depending on the trend/signal identified on a specific technological field, to advise the decision maker to embark on new plans for initiating appropriate action in areas like R&D/production/marketing/diversification of product range etc.
Utilization of evaluated ideas
n The decision maker would be in the position to get all relevant inputs i.e. technological forecast, government policies, financial commitments, business environs etc. in order to make up his mind as to whether particular course of action could be pursued or not.
Applications
Technology monitoring is a useful tool for anticipating changes through continuously monitoring the signals of change, especially in the following:
n To plan R&D
n To obtain new ideas on products/process/technology
n To identify areas or corporate diversification/investment/collaboration
n To identify possible sources for technology acquisition/licensing.

Relevance Trees
n Step 1: Arrange in hierarchical order the objectives, sub objectives, activities, missions or tasks.
n Step 2: Ensure all possible ways of achieving the objectives have been included or assessed.
n Step 3: Evaluate the relevance of individual tasks and sub-objectives to the overall objectives.
Advantages and Disadvantages
n Provides systematic method for assessing the route to be used for achieving a defined future objective or solving a given problem.
n Helps in deciding whether an objective is likely to be achieved or not,
n Helps in determining alternative ways by which a given objective might be achieved.
n Ensure that adequate and appropriate attention is applied to all tasks and activities depending on their relevance.
n The relevance tree for a large complex technology will be complicated to be handled.